فرح وزراء الحكومة ورقصوا في القدس لسيادة إسرائيل منذ 56 سنة، بهدف قمع ما تبقى من الكيان الفلسطيني المتفكك على أي حال، لكن إسرائيل اليوم تفقد مكانتها الإقليمية، وتسير القدس إلى شرك استراتيجي ينسج من حولها. الجيش الإسرائيلي ضرب “الجهاد” بشدة ومنح لحظة من النشوى العسكرية، حين فشل الإيرانيون في خلق معركة ساحة واحدة مع بقاء حماس خارج القتال في القطاع. لقد حسنت إسرائيل ردعها العسكري وكسبت وقتاً حتى الجولة التالية، لكن استراتيجية اللاشيء لم تتغير.
الواقع أن طهران تقرأ الخريطة الدولية جيداً وتدرك أن الأولوية الأمريكية ليست في المنطقة. فهي تشخص الصدع بين البيت الأبيض والحكومة الحالية، وتفهم بأنها نقطة الضعف الإسرائيلية الأكبر، وهذه فرصتها لتحول الميزان الإقليمي لصالحها؛ للمبادرة إلى خطوات سياسية ذات مغزى تحشر إسرائيل في الزاوية.
لقد صعد شعاع إيران جداً على خلفية وقوفها من خلف روسيا في حربها في أوكرانيا، بما في ذلك المساعدة التي قدمتها في الالتفاف على العقوبات.
لقد جاء الاستفزاز الإيراني دون أي روع ودون أن تدفع عليه أي ثمن بالمقابل ليجعلها بطل الحارة، وشجع السعوديين الغاضبين من الأمريكيين على الارتباط بها بخلق جدول أعمال إقليمي جديد بقيادتهما. اتفاق العلاقات المتبادلة الذي وقعتاه بوساطة صينية هو بمثابة استفزاز فظ آخر لواشنطن تركها خارج الصورة تماماً.
أما إسرائيل، التي فقدت سحرها في نظر الأمريكيين ومن ثم ضعف نفوذها في المنطقة، فتسمح للسعوديين والإيرانيين بتصميم البيت العربي من جديد، فيما يبقى العنصر الإسرائيلي خارج الباب، الذي بات مشكوكاً فيه أن يفتح مرة أخرى وفق هذه المعطيات. فالسعودية تندفع بكل قوتها إلى ترسيخ مكانتها كزعيمة إقليمية، ولقاء الجامعة العربية كان عرض بدء مبهر لها مع زيلينسكي كـ “فنان ضيف”. بعد دحر إسرائيل، بدا ترميم سوريا هدفاً ممتازاً لها. تحت رعايتها عاد الابن الضائع الأسد مرة أخرى إلى حضن الجامعة العربية، وكان هدف اللقاء أن تعاد للجامعة العربية قامتها بعد سنوات طويلة. الدعم المالي لانتخاب أردوغان سيسمح لها بأن تطلب انسحاباً تركياً وفرض السيادة السورية على كل أراضيها. وستحظى السعودية بالنقاط على إعادة تصميم سوريا القديمة، في المكان الذي فشل فيه الأمريكيون والروس بل والإيرانيون لتكييف سوريا حسب أهدافهم.
وسرعان ما سيأتي أيضاً الضغط على إسرائيل لشطب هجماتها في سوريا للسماح بإعادة بنائها. بالمقابل، ستعطي السعودية ممراً برحلات جوية إسرائيلية بل وربما “شيكاً” لإعادة بناء الدمار في قطاع غزة. وفي إطار التفاهمات الجديدة بين الرياض وطهران، فإنهما ستتقاسمان النفوذ في سوريا الجديدة ويبدو أن هذا أيضاً ليس مجاناً. في المقابل، تتوقع السعودية أن تتوقف الهجمات عليها من اليمن.
لكن الضربة الاستراتيجية الأكبر في إسرائيل ستأتي من تطبيع العلاقات المقتربة بين القاهرة وطهران. فالمصريون يقرأون الخريطة جيداً. وهم خائبو الأمل من فك الارتباط الأمريكي عن المنطقة ومن القطيعة المتشكلة بين البيت الأبيض وتل أبيب. إن دور بطانة الامتصاص للضربات المتكررة بين إسرائيل وحماس بدأ المصريون يملونه، وفي وضع غياب مقابل أمريكي منظور للعيان، ستخبو مصلحة القاهرة في مواصلة الدفاع عن غزة. فما لك أن مصالح جديدة مع الإيرانيين كفيلة بإحداث تغيير في نهجهم.
في زمن حرج جداً حولنا، تبدو إسرائيل منقطعة عن الواقع ومنشغلة بذاتها. ثمن رؤيا سموتريتش لمليون مستوطن في الضفة، ومسار العنصرية والاستفزاز الذي ينتهجه بن غفير، وتحطم التكافل الداخلي والضعف العام الذي تبثه الحكومة التي لا يقلقها إلا بقاؤها، تمس بصورة إسرائيل وتضعف مكانتها الدولية. بدون الارتباط الأمريكي القوي، تفقد إسرائيل من قوتها ومكانتها.
في غضون أربعة أشهر، تحولت إسرائيل من مبادرة إقليمية للمحور المضاد لإيران إلى لاعب احتياط عديم التأثير. إيران تواصل التقدم إلى القنبلة، وذاكرة نصر الله تضعف حيال أفكاره للمبادرة إلى الهجوم.
في الوضع الحالي، يشكل سلوك الحكومة خطراً ذا مغزى على مكانة وأمن إسرائيل القومي. مشكوك أن يكون بوسع نتنياهو أن يغير الوضع ويتغلب على ألعاب القوة التي لشركائه، لكن مفتاح تحويل الاتجاه ربما يكون في غزة، حيث لتركيبة الحكومة الحالية إشكالية سياسية أقل، وحماس أثبتت لجماً وتحكماً، والمصريون سيفضلون تطبيق سياسة تسهيل وإعطاء تسويات اقتصادية هناك؟ كما أن تسوية وقف نار بعيدة المدى ستشكل كبحاً للنفوذ الإيراني في القطاع.
كل مبادرة ستكون أفضل من سياسة سلبية أو جمود قد تؤدي بإسرائيل إلى عزلة إقليمية وشلل سياسي واسع.
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