ماذا يعني سقوط باخموت بيد الروس؟

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المصدر: موقع Responsible Statecraft

تشير التقارير إلى أنه بعد أشهر من القتال، استولى الروس على مدينة باخموت شرق أوكرانيا. يأتي هذا في وقت يتعهد فيه قادة العالم بمزيد من المساعدات والأسلحة – بما في ذلك طائرات F-16 المتطورة الأمريكية الصنع – لأوكرانيا على أمل أن تتمكن قواتها المسلحة من شن هجوم مضاد طال انتظاره هذا الربيع.

أجرت مديرة تحرير موقع Responsible Craft كيلي بوكار فلاهوس مقابلة مع اثنين من كبار خبراء روسيا في معهد كوينسي – أناتول ليفين وجورج بيبي – عن رأيهما الصريح حول ما يعنيه هذا الانتصار الواضح لروسيا، وكيف يمكن أن يغير مشهد الحرب. وما الذي يمكن أن نقرأه في نقل طائرات F-16 إلى أوكرانيا، وهل يخاطر ذلك بالتصعيد إلى صراع أوسع بين الناتو وروسيا؟ وأين يترك ذلك أولئك الذين يرغبون في الابتعاد عن القتال وإلى وقف إطلاق النار؟

وفيما يلي النص المترجم للمقابلة:

كيلي فلاهوس: حسنا، تقول التقارير اليوم أنه بعد عدة أشهر استولى الروس على مدينة باخموت. ماذا يعني هذا تكتيكيًا واستراتيجيًا لكلا الجانبين؟

جورج بيبي: بالتأكيد. حسنًا، أعتقد أن السؤال الحقيقي حول أهمية هذا النصر لن يكون واضحًا لبعض الوقت. أعتقد أن الكثير من الخبراء العسكريين جادلوا بأن باخموت في حد ذاتها ليست مهمة من الناحية الاستراتيجية، وأنه من غير المحتمل أن تؤدي إلى بعض الاختراق للروس الذي يتيح تقدمًا سريعًا إلى المزيد من المدن الأوكرانية، أو تطويق، أو القدرة على كسر دفاعات أوكرانيا معًا. لا أعتقد أن هذا سيحدث.

السؤال الأكبر هو ما إذا كان قرار أوكرانيا بشن دفاع شامل عن باخموت، على الرغم من افتقاره إلى الأهمية الاستراتيجية، سيؤدي إلى شل قدرتها على شن هجوم مضاد جديد في أماكن أخرى من أوكرانيا، وهو أمر خططوا له منذ فترة طويلة وتحدثوا عنه علنًا منذ فترة طويلة. وأعتقد أن الكثير من الخبراء العسكريين الغربيين، بمن فيهم مسؤولو البنتاغون، يحثون الأوكرانيين منذ فترة طويلة على القيام بانسحاب منظم من باخموت للحفاظ على رجالهم وذخائرهم لاستخدامها في معارك أكثر أهمية في المستقبل.

لكن زيلينسكي نقض هذه النصيحة بشكل أساسي وقرر إرسال المزيد من القوات – بما في ذلك بعض أفضل القوات الأوكرانية – لمحاولة الاحتفاظ بباخموت. لقد قدم عرضًا مسرحيًا لهذا. تتذكرون عندما جاء إلى واشنطن في ديسمبر الماضي، جاء حاملًا علمًا من باخموت مأخوذًا من المدافعين هناك، والذي أهداه بشكل احتفالي للكونغرس الأمريكي كرمز لتصميم أوكرانيا على الاحتفاظ بالمدينة وهزيمة القوات الروسية. حسنًا، كل ذلك فشل. من الواضح الآن أن كل ما وضعوه في الدفاع عنها انتهى به الأمر إلى الهدر، وما هي الآثار الأكبر على قدرة أوكرانيا على دفع روسيا مرة أخرى يبقى أن نرى، لكن تخميني هو أن هناك الكثير من الرؤوس التي تهتز في واشنطن اليوم تتساءل عما كان يفكر فيه زيلينسكي.

أناتول ليفين: نعم، أنا أتفق مع كل ذلك. ما أود إضافته هو أننا لا نستطيع أن نكون متأكدين من مقدار الضرر الذي لحق بالقوات المسلحة الروسية خلال معركة الاستنزاف الطويلة هذه. لقد عانوا بالتأكيد بشدة أيضا. أفترض أن السؤال الرئيسي الوحيد لا علاقة له بالقتال نفسه. هذا ما سيفعله من أجل هيبة (رئيس مجموعة فاغنر يفغيني بريغوجين) ومجموعة فاغنر. هل سيعزز هذا حقًا يده في السياسة الداخلية الروسية؟ بالطبع، من المضحك جدًا هذه العبارة من فاغنر أنهم سيسلمون باخموت إلى الجيش الروسي، كما لو كانوا في الأساس قوة متحالفة، وليس تحت القيادة العسكرية الروسية على الإطلاق. وكبادرة كريمة للغاية، سيعطونها الآن للروس، وهو بيان مذهل حقًا. وبالطبع، سوف يصبّ الزيت على نار الغضب في وزارة الدفاع الروسية في بريغوجين.

جورج: نعم، أنا أتفق مع ذلك. وأود أن أضيف أن بوتين، في إعلانه سقوط باخموت، سمى فاغنر بالفعل، ولا أعتقد أن هذا شيء فعله من قبل. لذا فهو يمنحهم بعض الفضل العام في كل هذا، وأعتقد أنه يحاول السير على خط رفيع للغاية بين استخدام فاغنر وبريغوزين للأغراض الوطنية الأوسع لروسيا، بينما لا يخلق في نفس الوقت منافسًا سياسيًا محتملًا أو شخصًا ما، كما تعلمون، الرجل في الحصان الأبيض الذي يمكن أن يخرج نفوذه السياسي عن السيطرة. لذا فهو يحاول تحقيق توازن هناك، وليس من الواضح كيف سيحدث ذلك أيضًا.

كيلي: كل هذا يأتي في وقت مهدت فيه الولايات المتحدة الطريق لنقل المقاتلات المتقدمة، وطائرات F-16، والتزمت قيادة G7 للتو بمزيد من المساعدات والأسلحة لأوكرانيا. هل ترى أن هناك المزيد من مشاركة الناتو الآن، لعكس ما يبدو أنه انتصار روسي، بقدر ما قد يكون هذا النصر رمزيًا؟ هل هذا يفتح الطريق لمزيد من التصعيد؟

أناتول: حسنا، نعم، أعتقد بلا شك أن هذه هي نية الناتو وأمريكا. السؤال هو ما إذا كان سينجح. وأيضا، بالطبع، حيث يهاجم الأوكرانيون لأن معظم التوقعات كانت أنهم سيهاجمون باتجاه بحر آزوف في محاولة لتقليص الموقع الروسي إلى قسمين، ولكن بعد أن أشاروا إلى ذلك كثيرًا، فقد منحوا الروس الكثير والكثير من الوقت للاستعداد. وتظهر صور الأقمار الصناعية عدة خطوط للدفاع الروسي. من ناحية أخرى، إذا حاولت (أوكرانيا) الهجوم المضاد مرة أخرى في دونباس، فيمكنهم ببساطة، كما تعلمون، التورط في معركة استنزاف أخرى دون أي اختراق على الإطلاق.

من المؤكد أن الناتو يحاول تقوية الأوكرانيين، وإذا تمكن الروس بالطبع من الاحتفاظ بالأوكرانيين ولم يخترقوا الحدود، فلن يكون هناك الكثير من الحوافز لروسيا للتصعيد. لكن المشكلة هي أنه إذا نجح دعم الناتو، واخترق الأوكرانيون حقًا، فأعتقد أن هناك فرصة لتصعيد روسيا، وما سيؤدي إليه ذلك لا نعرف.

جورج: نعم، أوافق. نحن في ديناميكية تصعيد مع الروس. لقد كنا لبعض الوقت. كل تقدم أو خطوة تصعيدية روسية يقابلها الغرب والعكس صحيح. أعتقد أن أحد الأشياء المتعلقة بنقل F-16، ولا يزال من غير الواضح بالضبط عدد هذه الطائرات التي يستعد الأوكرانيون للحصول عليها ومدى سرعة وصولها، لكنها طائرات يصعب تشغيلها للأوكرانيين دون دعم غربي واسع النطاق. إنها تتطلب كميات هائلة من الصيانة، وتتطلب مدارج طويلة وجيدة الصيانة نسبيًا. والأوكرانيون لديهم عدد قليل جدًا من هؤلاء. لذلك سيتعين عليهم إما تحديث المدارج الحالية في أوكرانيا من أجل استيعاب هذه الطائرات، أو سيتعين عليهم نقلها من القواعد الجوية لبلد الناتو.

الآن، أي من هؤلاء يمثل مشكلة لأنهم إذا قاموا بترقية المدارج، فإن الروس سيرون ذلك. لذلك سوف يشيرون بشكل أساسي إلى المكان الذي يجب أن يهاجم فيه الروس من أجل شل قدرة أوكرانيا على قيادة هذه الطائرات. حتى لو كانوا يعملون من القواعد الجوية لحلف الناتو، فسيكون على الروس اتخاذ قرار حقيقي بشأن ما إذا كانوا سيضربون القواعد التي تطير منها هذه الطائرات. وعلى أي حال، لا يستطيع الأوكرانيون الحفاظ عليها. سيتعين عليهم شحن هذه الأشياء ذهابًا وإيابًا إلى دول الناتو للصيانة، أو سيتعين على الغرب وضع أطقم صيانة غربية في أوكرانيا للقيام بالصيانة هناك. لذلك أعتقد أن هذا عمل محفوف بإمكانية التصعيد.

الشيء الآخر الذي أود قوله هو تخميني – ليس لدي أي أساس دليلي لهذا الحكم، لكنه مجرد شك قوي – (أنه) كلما نفد الأوكرانيون من صواريخ الدفاع الجوي، زاد الضغط في الغرب لتزويد أوكرانيا بطائرات F-16. نحن فقط لا نملك الصواريخ لتزويدهم بها. والطريقة الوحيدة التي يمكننا من خلالها التأكد من أن الأوكرانيين ليسوا بلا حماية ضد الهجمات الجوية الروسية هي توفير هذا النوع من دعم الطائرات المقاتلة هناك. لذلك أعتقد أن هذه في الواقع علامة سيئة حول تقييم الغرب لحالة الدفاعات الجوية الأوكرانية.

كيلي: هذا مخيف جدًا. أعني، في تقييم كلاكما، هل نحن أقرب إلى الحديث عن وقف إطلاق النار، أم أننا بعيدون عنه اليوم كما قلنا، بالأمس، بعد أنباء طائرات F-16 وسقوط باخموت في أيدي الروس؟ ما هو مستوى ثقتك في أنه يمكن أن يكون هناك بالفعل بعض الدبلوماسية في المستقبل القريب؟

أناتول: حسنا، أعني، بيان G7، كما تعلمون، خرج عن طريقه للمطالبة بالانسحاب الروسي الكامل. الآن لم يذكر على وجه التحديد من جميع الأراضي الأوكرانية منذ عام 2014. ولكن من المؤكد أن ذلك لم يكن علامة مشجعة لأي نوع من الحلول التوفيقية. لكن في النهاية، سيتعين علينا ببساطة أن نرى ما سيحدث في ساحة المعركة. لأننا سمعنا مرارًا وتكرارًا اقتراحات في الأسابيع والأشهر الأخيرة بأنه إذا فشلت أوكرانيا في تحقيق نصر كبير هذا العام، فلا يمكن الحفاظ على المستويات الحالية من المساعدات. كان جورج محقًا تمامًا عندما يتعلق الأمر بعدم قدرتنا على توفير صواريخ مضادة للطائرات وصواريخ دفاع جوي. لكنها في النهاية حرب، وستكون التطورات في ساحة المعركة هي العامل الحاسم – أو عدم وجود تطورات في ساحة المعركة.

كيلي: جورج، أي أفكار أخيرة حول ذلك؟

جورج: وأعتقد أن الجانبين متباعدان جدًا في هذه المرحلة. ولا تميل أوكرانيا ولا روسيا إلى تقديم تنازلات. وبيان G7 والقرار في واشنطن بتوفير طائرات F-16 لا يشجعني على الاعتقاد بأن الولايات المتحدة قريبة من محاولة إيجاد طريقة حل وسط للخروج من هذا. والشيء الوحيد المشجع بشأن السلام هو أن الأجزاء الأخرى من العالم – الصين والبرازيل والكرسي الرسولي – تبدو عازمة أكثر من أي وقت مضى على محاولة إيجاد مخرج من هذا.

كيلي: شكرا.

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